Family dossier · EMA Cross
PerpForge is a perpetual-futures strategy simulator. We ran the EMA Cross across SOL, ETH, BTC, on multiple timeframes, at multiple leverage rungs, long and short. Winners and busts published together. The verdict in one sentence, the evidence, then all 52, ranked by edge significance.
The finding
Most of this family is noise. Run the canonical EMA crossovers across BTC, ETH, and SOL and the majority show no edge you can tell apart from luck. The fastest crossovers get chopped up in the candle-to-candle noise, and the famous slow golden cross trades too rarely to prove anything either way. A real edge here is the exception, not the rule, so we rank by proven edge and publish every bust beside the winners.
How many actually worked
Of 52 variants with enough trades to judge (≥30 trades), 8 show an edge distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence: 8 long, 0 short. The short side was tested at the same bar (26 configs) and shows none, so this long-only edge is in-sample and window-dependent, not a directive. The rest are luck or untested. Profitable means it made money over the window; a real edge (proven, not luck) is a higher bar.
What the EMA Cross is
The EMA crossover is a trend-following signal. An EMA is computed at two speeds: a fast one over a short window and a slow one over a longer one. When the fast average crosses above the slow one, recent price is accelerating, read as an emerging uptrend, and the strategy enters long. When the fast crosses back below, it exits, and on the short side it bets the price falls. Trend-followers share a personality, and it matters for reading these numbers. They win a minority of their trades (often 25 to 45 percent) and survive on a few big winners while cutting many small losers. They make money in sustained trends and bleed in chop, where every false breakout is a losing trade. So a low win rate is normal here, not a failure by itself. The question is whether the winners are big enough to pay for the losers.
How we test the EMA Cross family, and why it's a fair test
A backtest is only worth reading if the test itself is fair. Here is every choice we make before a single EMA Cross number is computed. So a good result cannot be an artifact of how we set the test up.
A fair test is not a perfect one. Every result here is in-sample, measured on the same history the strategies were selected from, so read it as a ceiling, not a forecast. And the engine does not yet model funding or slippage, so a fair comparison between strategies is still not a faithful copy of live trading.
↑ The five that hold up
Top 5 by edge significance.
| # | Strategy | Verdict | Returnin-sample | Worst drawdowndepth · recovery | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMA Cross 12/26 SOL·1h·long·858 trades | +0.45Real edge | +1.2% | -11%·24mo | |
| 2 | EMA Cross 21/50 SOL·1h·long·440 trades | +0.45Real edge | +2.6% | -8%·18mo | |
| 3 | EMA Cross 21/50 SOL·4h·long·115 trades | +0.36Real edge | +12.7% | -9%·23mo | |
| 4 | EMA Cross 12/26 SOL·30m·long·1744 trades | +0.24Real edge | +0.5% | -11%·24mo | |
| 5 | EMA Cross 12/26 ETH·30m·long·1796 trades | +0.15Real edge | +0.3% | -5%·9mo |
↓ The five worst outcomes
We publish the busts next to the winners. These are the proof we are not selling you anything: bankrupt or down more than half the starting balance.
| # | Strategy | Verdict | Returnin-sample | Worst drawdowndepth · recovery | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | EMA Cross 9/21 Heavy lossBTC·1m·short·54454 trades | -13.19No edge | -0.2% | -98%·71mo | |
| 51 | EMA Cross 9/21 Heavy lossBTC·1m·long·59111 trades | -11.07No edge | -0.1% | -98%·71mo | |
| 50 | EMA Cross 9/21 Heavy lossETH·1m·short·55969 trades | -10.54No edge | -0.2% | -98%·71mo | |
| 49 | EMA Cross 9/21 Heavy lossETH·1m·long·62424 trades | -8.84No edge | -0.1% | -98%·71mo | |
| 48 | EMA Cross 9/21 Heavy lossBTC·5m·short·14848 trades | -5.19No edge | -0.2% | -67%·71mo |
All 52 variants · by market
What this engine models, and what it doesn't
The next experiment
We never tested these crossovers with a filter that sits out sideways markets. Pre-fill the Lab with one and find out. Your pair, your timeframe, the same engine these 52 ran on.